14) «Spanish Economy Forecasts 2013»

by Javier Carro

Topics: Economy, Frontpage

14)       «Spanish Economy Forecasts 2013″

FUNCAS panel testing services projections predict (19 institutions) that the economy will fall 2013 which calculates Executive triple. Analysts say the unemployment rate will scale up to 26.1 % in 2013. The desviation between the figures put forward by the Government and by private analysts anticipated could cost the State between 3.000 and 5.000 million. The Spanish Executive will need more than a chisel to exceed forecasts by analysts because they worsen: 10 of 19 analyzed at FUNCAS panel testing services have lowered their forecasts with respect to the previous report in late July, when they predicted that GDP would fall 1.1 percent the coming year. They estimate that GDP will contract by 1.6%, a tenth less than its previous forecast. When a few weeks ago the IMF (International Monetary Fund) published its forecasts of growth in which it concluded that the Spanish economy will fall 1.3% in 2013, the Government officials downplayed those calculations and emphatically defended his most optimistic calculations. «What says the IMF is not written in bronze» -then assured the Minister of Economy, Luis de Guindos-. The unemployment rate is another indicator in which there is no consensus between the Government and private analysts. Even though the calculations expected for the end of the year are similar (study services calculated to reach 24.7%, compared to 24.6% of the Government), the forecasts for the coming year show great differences. Does anybody believe the Spanish Government forecasts…?

FUNCAS (Dirección de Coyuntura y Estadística)

«Forecasts for the Spanish Economy Panel 2013»  (Panel de previsiones de la economía española – 2013)

1)Analistas Financieros Internacionales (AFI), 2)Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), 3)Bankia, 4)CatalunyaCaixa, 5)Cemex, 6)Centro de Estudios Economía de Madrid (CEEM-URJC), 7)Centro de Predicción Económica (CEPREDE-UAM), 8)CEOE, 9)ESADE, 10)Fundación Cajas de Ahorros (FUNCAS), 11)Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE-UCM), 12)Instituto de Estudios Económicos (IEE), 13)Instituto de Macroeconomía y Finanzas (Universidad CJC), 14)Instituto Flores de Lemus (IFL-UC3M), 15)Intermoney, 16)La Caixa, 17)Repsol, 18)Santander (B. Santander), y 19)Solchaga Recio & Asociados.

FUNCAS Panel” – 19 Instititutions Indicators

GDP – Gross Domestic Product (PIB):                        1.6 (2012);     -1.5 (2013)

Domestic Demand  (Demanda Nacional):                    -4.0 (2012);     -3.8 (2013)

Unemployment – Labour Force Survey¹:                  24.7 (2012);     26.1 (2013)

¹Paro (Encuesta de Población Activa – EPA)


Source: FUNCAS  –  http://www.funcas.es/Indicadores/Indicadores.aspx?Id=1   ∎

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