22) “Employment in Spain?”

by Javier Carro

Topics: Economy, Frontpage

October 2, 2013.

The end of the tun­nel? Or just the be­gin­ning of the end of the tun­nel?.

“2014 will be the first year with net cre­ation of em­ploy­ment of the cri­sis,” pro­claimed recently the Min­is­ter of econ­omy, Luis de Guin­dos. And, Mr. Rajoy said the economy would improve ‘little by little.’

–          That Yes, it will be a rise in the min­i­mum oc­cu­pa­tion, will have to wait un­til the sec­ond half of the year, and will be based en­tirely on part-time con­tracts in­creased. The re­cov­ery from a cri­sis which has de­voured more than three mil­lion jobs just will im­ple­ment when the Span­ish econ­omy be­gins to cre­ate jobs.

2014 will be the first year with net cre­ation of em­ploy­ment of the cri­sis ?

–          That Yes, it will be a rise in the min­i­mum oc­cu­pa­tion, will have to wait un­til the sec­ond half of next year, and will be based largely on part-time con­tracts in­creased.

–          “It will be light, small, still very in­ad­e­quate, but there will be job cre­ation,” said Luis de Guin­dos and jus­ti­fied the dif­fer­ence be­tween their words and their data that in the fore­casts.

The EPA (sur­vey of ac­tive pop­u­la­tion) in the sec­ond half of 2014, which would yield an an­nual ad­vance of 0.1% (PP Government forecast) does not dis­tin­guish be­tween work­ers part-time and full time to com­pute the to­tal num­ber of em­ployed, so if part-time con­tracts gain im­por­tance, as it is hap­pen­ing in the last few months, sur­vey could re­flect an in­crease in em­ploy­ment.

(*The vari­a­tion of em­ploy­ment is mea­sured based on data from na­tional ac­counts in “jobs equiv­a­lent to full time”, a method­ol­ogy that di­lutes the weight of jobs part time. *“job cre­ation”, it chose to re­fer to fore­cast what will hap­pen with the sur­vey of ac­tive pop­u­la­tion).

Econ­omy im­proves the prog­no­sis for GDP and the slight de­cline in un­em­ploy­ment, even in 26%, un­em­ploy­ment for next year is due to the fall of the ac­tive pop­u­la­tion. The PSOE (So­cial­ist) President Za­p­a­tero, al­ready an­tic­i­pated that the work would be­gin to re­cover in the sec­ond half of 2011…

This has al­ready been made in pre­vi­ous prog­no­sis of the Govern­ment of the PP. ∎

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